Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Science Data The Data Publishing Journal
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349-396, 2015
http://www.earth-syst-sci-data.net/7/349/2015/
doi:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Review article
07 Dec 2015
Global Carbon Budget 2015
C. Le Quéré1, R. Moriarty1, R. M. Andrew2, J. G. Canadell3, S. Sitch4, J. I. Korsbakken2, P. Friedlingstein5, G. P. Peters2, R. J. Andres6, T. A. Boden6, R. A. Houghton7, J. I. House8, R. F. Keeling9, P. Tans10, A. Arneth11, D. C. E. Bakker12, L. Barbero13,14, L. Bopp15, J. Chang15, F. Chevallier15, L. P. Chini16, P. Ciais15, M. Fader17, R. A. Feely18, T. Gkritzalis19, I. Harris20, J. Hauck21, T. Ilyina22, A. K. Jain23, E. Kato24, V. Kitidis25, K. Klein Goldewijk26, C. Koven27, P. Landschützer28, S. K. Lauvset29, N. Lefèvre30, A. Lenton31, I. D. Lima32, N. Metzl30, F. Millero33, D. R. Munro34, A. Murata35, J. E. M. S. Nabel22, S. Nakaoka36, Y. Nojiri36, K. O'Brien37, A. Olsen38,39, T. Ono40, F. F. Pérez41, B. Pfeil38,39, D. Pierrot13,14, B. Poulter42, G. Rehder43, C. Rödenbeck44, S. Saito45, U. Schuster4, J. Schwinger29, R. Séférian46, T. Steinhoff47, B. D. Stocker48,49, A. J. Sutton18,37, T. Takahashi50, B. Tilbrook51, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx52,53, G. R. van der Werf54, S. van Heuven55, D. Vandemark56, N. Viovy15, A. Wiltshire57, S. Zaehle44, and N. Zeng58 1Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
2Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
3Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
4College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
5College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
6Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
7Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), Falmouth, MA 02540, USA
8Cabot Institute, Department of Geography, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK
9University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0244, USA
10National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
11Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
12Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
13Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
14National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USA
15Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette CEDEX, France
16Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
17Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée, Bâtiment Villemin, BP 80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence CEDEX 04, France
18National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
19Flanders Marine Institute, InnovOcean site, Wandelaarkaai 7, 8400 Ostend, Belgium
20Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
21Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
22Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
23Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA
24Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
25Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK
26PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague/Bilthoven and Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
27Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
28Environmental Physics Group, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
29Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allegt. 55, 5007 Bergen, Norway
30Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 4 place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France
31CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, P.O. Box 1538 Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
32Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
33Department of Ocean Sciences, RSMAS/MAC, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA
34Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Campus Box 450 Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
35Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 2-15 Natsushimacho, Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture 237-0061, Japan
36Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
37Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
38Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway
39Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway
40National Research Institute for Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama 236-8648, Japan
41Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas (CSIC), C/Eduardo Cabello, 6. Vigo. Pontevedra, 36208, Spain
42Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
43Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestr 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
44Max Planck Institut für Biogeochemie, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
45Marine Division, Global Environment and Marine Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
46Centre National de Recherche Météorologique–Groupe d'Etude de l'Atmosphère Météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Météo-France/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31100 Toulouse, France
47GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
48Climate and Environmental Physics, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
49Imperial College London, Life Science Department, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK
50Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
51CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia
52Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
53ICOS-Carbon Portal, c/o Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
54Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
55Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Landsdiep 4, 1797 SZ 't Horntje (Texel), the Netherlands
56University of New Hampshire, Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, 161 Morse Hall, 8 College Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA
57Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
58Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Citation: Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S., Korsbakken, J. I., Friedlingstein, P., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Keeling, R. F., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Bakker, D. C. E., Barbero, L., Bopp, L., Chang, J., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Fader, M., Feely, R. A., Gkritzalis, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Munro, D. R., Murata, A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S., Nojiri, Y., O'Brien, K., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Pérez, F. F., Pfeil, B., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., van Heuven, S., Vandemark, D., Viovy, N., Wiltshire, A., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.: Global Carbon Budget 2015, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349-396, doi:10.5194/essd-7-349-2015, 2015.
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the...
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