Journal cover Journal topic
Earth System Science Data The data publishing journal
Journal topic

Journal metrics

Journal metrics

  • IF value: 8.792 IF 8.792
  • IF 5-year value: 8.414 IF 5-year 8.414
  • CiteScore value: 8.18 CiteScore 8.18
  • SNIP value: 2.620 SNIP 2.620
  • SJR value: 4.885 SJR 4.885
  • IPP value: 7.67 IPP 7.67
  • h5-index value: 28 h5-index 28
  • Scimago H index value: 24 Scimago H index 24
Volume 7, issue 2
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349-396, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 7, 349-396, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-7-349-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Review article 07 Dec 2015

Review article | 07 Dec 2015

Global Carbon Budget 2015

C. Le Quéré1, R. Moriarty1, R. M. Andrew2, J. G. Canadell3, S. Sitch4, J. I. Korsbakken2, P. Friedlingstein5, G. P. Peters2, R. J. Andres6, T. A. Boden6, R. A. Houghton7, J. I. House8, R. F. Keeling9, P. Tans10, A. Arneth11, D. C. E. Bakker12, L. Barbero14,13, L. Bopp15, J. Chang15, F. Chevallier15, L. P. Chini16, P. Ciais15, M. Fader17, R. A. Feely18, T. Gkritzalis19, I. Harris20, J. Hauck21, T. Ilyina22, A. K. Jain23, E. Kato24, V. Kitidis25, K. Klein Goldewijk26, C. Koven27, P. Landschützer28, S. K. Lauvset29, N. Lefèvre30, A. Lenton31, I. D. Lima32, N. Metzl30, F. Millero33, D. R. Munro34, A. Murata35, J. E. M. S. Nabel22, S. Nakaoka36, Y. Nojiri36, K. O'Brien37, A. Olsen39,38, T. Ono40, F. F. Pérez41, B. Pfeil39,38, D. Pierrot14,13, B. Poulter42, G. Rehder43, C. Rödenbeck44, S. Saito45, U. Schuster4, J. Schwinger29, R. Séférian46, T. Steinhoff47, B. D. Stocker48,49, A. J. Sutton37,18, T. Takahashi50, B. Tilbrook51, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx52,53, G. R. van der Werf54, S. van Heuven55, D. Vandemark56, N. Viovy15, A. Wiltshire57, S. Zaehle44, and N. Zeng58 C. Le Quéré et al.
  • 1Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
  • 2Center for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO), Oslo, Norway
  • 3Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, GPO Box 3023, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia
  • 4College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QE, UK
  • 5College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UK
  • 6Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, USA
  • 7Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC), Falmouth, MA 02540, USA
  • 8Cabot Institute, Department of Geography, University of Bristol, Bristol BS8 1TH, UK
  • 9University of California, San Diego, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, CA 92093-0244, USA
  • 10National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory (NOAA/ESRL), Boulder, CO 80305, USA
  • 11Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
  • 12Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
  • 13Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL 33149, USA
  • 14National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USA
  • 15Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif sur Yvette CEDEX, France
  • 16Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA
  • 17Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Technopôle Arbois-Méditerranée, Bâtiment Villemin, BP 80, 13545 Aix-en-Provence CEDEX 04, France
  • 18National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
  • 19Flanders Marine Institute, InnovOcean site, Wandelaarkaai 7, 8400 Ostend, Belgium
  • 20Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK
  • 21Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Am Handelshafen 12, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
  • 22Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstr. 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany
  • 23Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USA
  • 24Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, Japan
  • 25Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK
  • 26PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague/Bilthoven and Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
  • 27Earth Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
  • 28Environmental Physics Group, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
  • 29Uni Research Climate, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allegt. 55, 5007 Bergen, Norway
  • 30Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHN, LOCEAN/IPSL Laboratory, 4 place Jussieu, 75005 Paris, France
  • 31CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, P.O. Box 1538 Hobart, Tasmania, Australia
  • 32Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Woods Hole, MA 02543, USA
  • 33Department of Ocean Sciences, RSMAS/MAC, University of Miami, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USA
  • 34Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Campus Box 450 Boulder, CO 80309-0450, USA
  • 35Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 2-15 Natsushimacho, Yokosuka, Kanagawa Prefecture 237-0061, Japan
  • 36Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
  • 37Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98115, USA
  • 38Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway
  • 39Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Allégaten 70, 5007 Bergen, Norway
  • 40National Research Institute for Fisheries Science, Fisheries Research Agency 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama 236-8648, Japan
  • 41Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas (CSIC), C/Eduardo Cabello, 6. Vigo. Pontevedra, 36208, Spain
  • 42Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA
  • 43Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemünde, Seestr 15, 18119 Rostock, Germany
  • 44Max Planck Institut für Biogeochemie, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
  • 45Marine Division, Global Environment and Marine Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, 1-3-4 Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, Japan
  • 46Centre National de Recherche Météorologique–Groupe d'Etude de l'Atmosphère Météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Météo-France/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31100 Toulouse, France
  • 47GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
  • 48Climate and Environmental Physics, and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
  • 49Imperial College London, Life Science Department, Silwood Park, Ascot, Berkshire SL5 7PY, UK
  • 50Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
  • 51CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Centre, Hobart, Australia
  • 52Department of Meteorology and Air Quality, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
  • 53ICOS-Carbon Portal, c/o Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
  • 54Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
  • 55Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Landsdiep 4, 1797 SZ 't Horntje (Texel), the Netherlands
  • 56University of New Hampshire, Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, 161 Morse Hall, 8 College Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA
  • 57Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK
  • 58Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Download
Short summary
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. We describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on a range of data and models and their interpretation by a broad scientific community.
Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and their redistribution among the...
Citation
Share